Holocene Volcanic Activity
in the Caribbean Plate Margins:
Forecast and Risk Assessment

23 February 2003
The Caribbean area primarily consists of the countries of Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Columbia and Venezuela and the island nations represented in the Lesser Antilles. Some countries such as Cuba, Dominican Republic, Peurto Rico, Jamaica and Venezuela, do not have any active volcanoes within.

The following table presents the current eruption status and forecast for all volcanoes within the Caribbean Plate boundaries. It will be upgraded from time to time as appropriate and as necessary.

All forecasts on the following table have been compiled, using presently loaded data, from the SWVRC software programme, ERUPTION Pro 10.4, the only known long-range and reasonably accurate forecasting programme of it kind in the world. Accuracy, relative to Caribbean area volcanoes only, is as follows: Of 11 Volcanoes originally forecasted, 7 have erupted for an accuracy of 63.64% to date for the year 2003.

KEY:

Volcano =		Name of volcano
Country =		Country of volcano location
Next Forecasted Year =		Year volcano is next forecasted to erupt
Yr. Of =>50% =		Year volcano is forecasted to erupt with =>50% probability
Yr. Of =>95% =		Year volcano is forecasted to erupt with =>95% probability
Current Status =		Current status of the volcano at this time

SWVRC's eruption forecasting programme, ERUPTION Pro 10.4, the only known long-range reasonably accurate forecasting programme of it kind in the world, is currently forecasting 491 volcanoes throughout the world. You can learn more about all current eruptions (global) plus much, much more at the SWVRC website located at the URL of: http://www.swvrc.org.

The interpretation of the Year volcano is next forecasted to erupt, Year volcano is forecasted to erupt with =>50% probability and Year volcano is forecasted to erupt with =>95% probability is as follows: Let us use, for example, volcano Nevado Del Ruiz in Columbia. It currently forecasted (with current data loaded) to erupt again in 2015. If it does not erupt and if the year reaches 2266, then Ruiz would now go to an =>50% probability of an eruption. If Ruiz does not erupt when the year reaches 3173, then Ruiz would go to an =>95% probability of an eruption. Of course if Ruiz does erupt then new forecast year calculations would be rendered by ERUPTION Pro 10.4.

In some cases, one will find that the year that a particular volcano is next forecasted to erupt is greater than say the year a volcano is forecasted to erupt with =>50%. For example, Masaya in Nicaragua is currently forecasted to erupt in 2027 but forecasted at =>50% probability in the year 2003. This seeming anomaly is due to the current data that is loaded into the computer. As the data changes, sometimes on a daily basis, the forecasted years will sometimes change on a daily basis as well. As new data is received and loaded into the ERUPTION Pro 10.4 database, so are the forecast years calculations revised.

NOTE: This document report will be updated from time-to-time as necessary to reflect the latest outputs from the ERUPTION Pro 10.4 database.