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7 November 2002
At the present time there is only one volcano in eruption in the Caribbean. It is volcano SOUFRIERE HILLS on the island of Montserrat in the Lesser Antilles arc. The current main hazards remain: pyroclastic flows, explosions, falls of ash and small stones, and lahars. The increasing knowledge of the volcano acquired by the observatory staff allows patterns of eruption behaviour to be recognised and some forms of activity to be anticipated. During a large collapse of the dome or explosions, heavy ashfall and the fall of small rock fragments can be expected in
the populated areas if the wind is in an unfavourable direction.
In the Eastern Caribbean, evidence suggests the largest volcanic events in the last 30kyr have been approximately 100x the intensity and 250x the magnitude of the 17 September 1996 explosion on Montserrat, occurring on Dominica and Saint Lucia. Globally, there is one eruption of this scale about every 25 years on average, from a total of about 1,500 active world-wide volcanoes.
SWVRC's eruption forecasting programme, ERUPTION Pro 10.4, is currently forecasting SOUFRIERE HILLS to erupt in 2003 with > 50% probability. All other volcanoes of the Lesser Antilles arc are presently in a state of repose. You can learn more about all eruptions (global) plus much, much more at the SWVRC website located at the URL of: http://www.swvrc.org
Images from the Government of Montserrat and the
Montserrat Volcano Observatory website
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